Black-legged deer ticks are rapidly growing in number, expanding their range, and carrying pathogens into places where they were relatively unknown.
This means that people outside of the usual regions of the US—the Northeast and Midwest—may want to take precautions.
Disease ecologist Maria Diuk-Wasser’s lab at Columbia University is tracking the spread and emergence of tick-borne pathogens, including a malaria-like parasite called Babesia microti, which causes babesiosis when transmitted to humans.
An increasing number of ticks are infected with babesia and Diuk-Wasser’s team is exploring evidence that the trend is connected to the rapid spread of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease.
TICKS WITH TWO PATHOGENS
“We found that these two pathogens co-occur in ticks more frequently than expected, resulting in enhanced human exposure to multiple infections,” says Diuk-Wasser, associate professor in the department of ecology, evolution and environmental biology. “Multiple infections lead to more severe symptoms and can make diagnosis more muddled and difficult.”
About 1,000 new cases of babesiosis are reported each year, while Lyme disease infects about 30,000 people annually. The two diseases share some of the same symptoms, including a flu-like illness, but babesiosis, which can cause certain types of anemia, is potentially fatal in people with suppressed immune systems. It can also be transmitted through blood transfusions, posing an additional public health threat.
If left untreated, Lyme disease, which generally has a distinctive bull’s-eye shape at the site of the bite, may lead to problems in the brain and nervous system, muscles and joints, heart and circulation, digestion, reproductive system, and skin.
DOUBLE WHAMMY
Following lab experiments, fieldwork, and the use of mathematical models, Diuk-Wasser’s team and colleagues recently concluded a study suggesting a connection between borrelia and babesia.
Published in the journal PLOS ONEin December, the study shows that mice infected with both pathogens are more likely to transmit babesia to ticks, which suggests an increased exposure to babesiosis for humans. So, as Lyme-disease causing borrelia invades new areas, babesiosis will likely follow.
“Understanding how these pathogens may influence each other’s distribution is important,” says Diuk-Wasser, who notes that when an infection emerges in new areas, “the diagnosis may be delayed because doctors and veterinarians don’t immediately recognize the symptoms.” That creates a serious public health concern.
Diuk-Wasser and her team are working to answer a number of questions, among them: What is causing the expansion of borrelia-carrying deer ticks in New England and beyond and how does infection with borrelia impact transmission of other pathogens?
“If we can understand transmission, we can estimate where different pathogens may start to appear and human infection may become something to watch out for. We might also eventually be able to devise control methods,” says Diuk-Wasser.
One working theory, she notes, is that climate change may be playing a role in the spread of Lyme and babesiosis in the northern US and into Canada, because warmer temperatures speed up ticks’ development, which can result in larger tick populations.
Researchers from Yale School of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, and the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology also contributed to the work.
Scientists have discovered concrete-like rock in a dormant volcano in Italy, and say it may explain why the Romans were able to invent the legendary compound used to construct the Pantheon and the Coliseum.
The concrete rock was found at the Campi Flegrei volcano near Naples.
“This implies the existence of a natural process in the subsurface of Campi Flegrei that is similar to the one that is used to produce concrete,” says Tiziana Vanorio, an experimental geophysicist at the Stanford University School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences.
Campi Flegrei lies at the center of a large depression, or caldera, that is pockmarked by craters formed during past eruptions, the last of which occurred nearly 500 years ago. Nestled within this caldera is the colorful port city of Pozzuoli, which was founded in 600 BCE by the Greeks.
Beginning in 1982, the ground beneath Pozzuoli began rising at an alarming rate. Within a two-year span, the uplift exceeded 6 feet—an amount unprecedented anywhere in the world.
“The rising sea bottom rendered the Bay of Pozzuoli too shallow for large craft,” Vanorio says.
Making matters worse, the ground swelling was accompanied by swarms of micro-earthquakes. Many of the tremors were too small to be felt, but when a magnitude 4 quake juddered Pozzuoli, officials evacuated the city’s historic downtown. Pozzuoli became a ghost town overnight.
A teenager at the time, Vanorio was among the approximately 40,000 residents forced to flee Pozzuoli and settle in towns scattered between Naples and Rome. The event made an impression on the young Vanorio, and inspired her interests in the geosciences.
ROCK SAMPLES FROM 2 MILES DEEP
Now an assistant professor at Stanford, Vanorio decided to apply her knowledge about how rocks in the deep Earth respond to mechanical and chemical changes to investigate how the ground beneath Pozzuoli was able to withstand so much warping before cracking and setting off micro-earthquakes.
“Ground swelling occurs at other calderas such as Yellowstone or Long Valley in the United States, but never to this degree, and it usually requires far less uplift to trigger earthquakes at other places,” Vanorio explains. “At Campi Flegrei, the micro-earthquakes were delayed by months despite really large ground deformations.”
To understand why the surface of the caldera was able to accommodate incredible strain without suddenly cracking, Vanorio and a postdoctoral associate, Waruntorn Kanitpanyacharoen, studied rock cores from the region.
In the early 1980s, a deep drilling program probed the active geothermal system of Campi Flegrei to a depth of about 2 miles. When the pair analyzed the rock samples, they discovered that Campi Flegrei’s caprock—a hard rock layer located near the caldera’s surface—is rich in pozzolana, or volcanic ash from the region.
ACTINOLITE: THE SECRET INGREDIENT?
The scientists also noticed that the caprock contained tobermorite and ettringite—fibrous minerals that are also found in manmade concrete. These minerals would have made Campi Flegrei’s caprock more ductile, and their presence explains why the ground beneath Pozzuoli was able to withstand significant bending before breaking and shearing.
These drill core samples were taken from the Campi Flegrei caldera. (Credit: Tiziana Vanorio)
But how did tobermorite and ettringite come to form in the caprock?
Once again, the drill cores provided the crucial clue. The samples showed that the deep basement of the caldera—the “wall” of the bowl-like depression—consisted of carbonate-bearing rocks similar to limestone, and that interspersed within the carbonate rocks was a needle-shaped mineral called actinolite.
“The actinolite was the key to understanding all of the other chemical reactions that had to take place to form the natural cement at Campi Flegrei,” says Kanitpanyacharoen, who is now at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand.
THE ROMANS WERE ‘KEEN OBSERVERS’
From the actinolite, the scientists deduced that a chemical reaction called decarbonation was occurring beneath Campi Flegrei. They believe that the combination of heat and circulating mineral-rich waters decarbonates the deep basement, prompting the formation of actinolite as well as carbon dioxide gas.
As the carbon dioxide mixes with calcium carbonate and hydrogen in the basement rocks, it triggers a chemical cascade that produces several compounds, one of which is calcium hydroxide. Calcium hydroxide, also known as portlandite or hydrated lime, is one of the two key ingredients in manmade concrete, including Roman concrete.
Circulating geothermal fluids transport this naturally occurring lime up to shallower depths, where it combines with the pozzolana ash in the caprock to form an impenetrable, concrete-like rock capable of withstanding very strong forces.
“This is the same chemical reaction that the ancient Romans unwittingly exploited to create their famous concrete, but in Campi Flegrei it happens naturally,” Vanorio says.
In fact, Vanorio suspects the inspiration for Roman concrete came from observing interactions between the volcanic ash at Pozzuoli and seawater in the region. The Roman philosopher Seneca, for example, noted that the “dust at Puteoli [the city’s Latin name] becomes stone if it touches water.”
“The Romans were keen observers of the natural world and fine empiricists,” Vanorio says. “Seneca, and before him Vitruvius, understood that there was something special about the ash at Pozzuoli, and the Romans used the pozzolana to create their own concrete, albeit with a different source of lime.”
POZZUOLI’S DOWNFALL
Pozzuoli was the main commercial and military port for the Roman Empire, and it was common for ships to use pozzolana as ballast while trading grain from the eastern Mediterranean. As a result of this practice, volcanic ash from Campi Flegrei—and the use of Roman concrete—spread across the ancient world.
Archeologists have recently found that piers in Alexandria, Caesarea, and Cyprus are all made from Roman concrete and have pozzolana as a primary ingredient.
Interestingly, the same chemical reaction that is responsible for the unique properties of Campi Flegrei’s caprock can also trigger its downfall. If too much decarbonation occurs—as might happen if a large amount of saltwater, or brine, gets injected into the system—an excess of carbon dioxide, methane and steam is produced.
As these gases rise toward the surface, they bump up against the natural cement layer, warping the caprock. This is what lifted Pozzuoli in the 1980s. When strain from the pressure buildup exceeded the strength of the caprock, the rock sheared and cracked, setting off swarms of micro-earthquakes.
As pent-up gases and fluids vented into the atmosphere, the ground swelling subsided. Vanorio and Kanitpanyacharoen suspect that as more natural lime was produced at depth and transported to the surface, the damaged caprock was slowly repaired, its cracks “healed” as more natural cement was produced.
Vanorio believes the conditions and processes responsible for the exceptional rock properties at Campi Flegrei could be present at other calderas around the world. A better understanding of the conditions and processes that formed Campi Flegrei’s caprock could also allow scientists to recreate it in the lab, and perhaps even improve upon it to engineer more durable and resilient concretes that are better able to withstand large stresses and shaking or to heal themselves after damage.
“There is a need for eco-friendly materials and concretes that can accommodate stresses more easily,” Vanorio says. “For example, extracting natural gas by hydraulic fracturing can cause rapid stress changes that cause concrete well casings to fail and lead to gas leaks and water contamination.”
Fetishizing celebrity “baby bumps” and high-profile new moms in string bikinis is an updated, ominous version of the “having it all” myth, says professor Lynn O’Brien Hallstein. In addition, she says, this trend is a setback for feminism.
Google any combination of the words “bikini” and “mom,” and out gushes a torrent of websites devoted to returning postpartum mothers’ abs to their prepregnancy tautness, or achieving a Gisele-esque body, even if they didn’t start out with one.
“Join the movement. Become an After,” command the folks at bikinibodymommy.com. Skinnymom.com has regimens to reverse “lower belly pooch meltdown,” exercise moves to “lift the girls,” and a “we’ve got your back” guide to getting rid of “back bulge.”
The definition of good motherhood used to involve primarily the care of children. But contemporary mothers are pressured to look toned and perfect, a phenomenon that has worked its way into the expectations associated with good mothering. New mothers are bombarded with media messages to become bikini-ready immediately postpartum, which is rarely even possible.
Profiles in the media “reinforce the theme that Kardashian is a pregnant fashion disaster,” says O’Brien Hallstein. (Credit: DFree / Shutterstock.com)
KIM AND KATE IN THE NEWS
Healthy women come in all shapes and sizes. In her book, O’Brien Hallstein analyzes media profiles of celebrity mothers to determine the ways that they encourage all mothers to engage in body work toward a specific media-touted ideal. And websites such as Skinny Mom go so far as to imply that achieving that ideal will solve any work-life balance struggles new moms might experience.
O’Brien Hallstein also sets out ways for women to confront and deflate this trend.
“While individual media profiles portray [Kate] Middleton as the perfect Jackie O, the individual profiles of [Kim] Kardashian continue to work rhetorically to reinforce the theme that Kardashian is a pregnant fashion disaster who makes bad choices, as evidenced in her wardrobe malfunctions.”
Kardashian was often described as “‘squeezing’ into ‘tight’ clothes,” writes O’Brien Hallstein, and readers were treated to close-ups of her swollen feet. “Middleton is held up as the good mother because her body reveals that she’s training well, she’s pregnant in bump only, but Kardashian’s a mess.”
You don’t concern yourself with the detritus of popular culture? It doesn’t matter. O’Brien Hallstein says that even those women who “would like to believe that we are somehow immune to these messages, academics included, are not.”
She cites a fellow academic’s conclusion that “even mothers who deliberately avoid TV and magazines, or who pride themselves on seeing through the celebrity profiles, have trouble escaping the standards of perfection…that the media ceaselessly atomize into the air we breathe.”
THE ‘NEW MOM-ISM’
The author says the point of her book is to acknowledge that something has to be done about the neotraditional new momism, especially in family life.
She references waves of feminism: the first, in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, focused on equal opportunities, particularly the right to vote, and the second wave, which surged in the 1960s and subsided in the 1990s, a time when feminism dovetailed with the anti–Vietnam War and civil rights movements, and ultimately became a call for sexual and reproductive rights for women.
Second-wave feminists such as Betty Friedan, author of the groundbreaking 1963 treatise The Feminine Mystique, were “rightfully concerned that there was an ironclad connection between femininity and maternity, and that maternity was women’s destiny, so they decided to focus on women gaining access separate from mothering,” says O’Brien Hallstein. “They weren’t antimotherhood.”
She says her book draws attention to a new, third wave, confronting “this other thing that has reared up”—the phenomenon of the bikini-ready mom.
WORK, HOUSE WORK, AND ‘BODY WORK’
“One of the reasons I wrote the book is I’m really hopeful that young people will have certain conversations before the babies come. I spend a lot of time addressing the neotraditional family,” she says. “Certainly many well-educated people believe in gender equity, but when the babies come, what they do in practice is sort of almost pre–second wave.”
The book’s final chapter discusses the bigger picture, citing a study showing that gender inequities persist, even among couples with well-educated, privileged men who say and believe all the right things, want to be more engaged, and fully support the idea of their partners having careers. A closer look at these couples revealed that not much had changed.
There may be more gender equality in the public sphere, but there is far less in the private sphere, says O’Brien Hallstein. And it doesn’t help that if you become a mother, you feel pressured to get your fit body back and to exercise what she calls the assumed “American right to wear a string bikini.”
This thinking is misguided and dangerous and makes an impact on gender equality in a broader sense, she says, because it’s literally erasing any physical sign of pregnancy and childbirth so women can say, “Yes, of course I have children, but I’ll be back in six weeks, and keep all that other stuff private and at home.”
What is true is that babies need a lot of time and energy, O’Brien Hallstein says. “Celebrity images and profiles work…to erase the difference that maternity makes in women’s lives by encouraging mothers to engage in a third shift of body work,” she writes.
“I conclude that celebrity mom profiles now suggest that maternal body work is the solution to both ‘having it all’ and ‘doing it all.’ We need to pay attention to this.”
Tim Cook isn’t very impressed with Chromebooks, and in an interview with BuzzFeed News today, he seemed to brush off the fact that they’re fast becoming more prevalent than Macs and iPads in classrooms. Though he didn’t mention them by name, Apple’s CEO implied that Chromebooks and other inexpensive PCs are really only successful because they’re the cheapest option for letting students take standardized tests — at least the ones that aren’t on paper. In fact, Cook went so far as to label them “test machines” according to BuzzFeed News, and said that Apple aims to do bigger, more impactful things in education.
“Assessments don’t create learning,” Cook said. “We are interested in helping students learn and teachers teach, but tests, no. We create products that are whole solutions for people that allow kids to learn how to create and engage on a different level.” And yeah, give any kid the choice, and they’d probably pick iPad over Chromebook.
Still, that’s a pretty harsh take on Google‘s tremendous success in classrooms; in only a few short years, growth of Chromebooks in education has surged far beyond what competitors can muster. As just one show of that momentum, Google has predicted that Chromebooks will outnumber all other classroom devices combined by the end of 2015. We’ll have to wait a bit longer to see if that pans out, but there’s no denying the upward trend. Even if iPads offer greater engagement and more fun, it has become clear that most schools are thinking in dollars, and there’s no beating Chromebooks on that front.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry hailed the newly passed international climate change agreement as a major achievement that could help turn the tide on global warming, but got a quick reminder that Republicans will fight it all the way.Obama said the climate agreement made Saturday night by almost 200 nations "can be a turning point for the world" and credited his administration for playing a key role. He and Kerry predicted it would prompt widespread spending on clean energy and help stem carbon pollution blamed for global warming.
"We've shown that the world has both the will and the ability to take on this challenge," Obama said from the White House. He said the climate agreement "offers the best chance we have to save the one planet we have."
"In short, this agreement will mean less of the carbon pollution that threatens our planet and more of the jobs and economic growth driven by low-carbon investments," Obama said.Obama said the world leaders meeting in Paris "met the moment" and that people can be more confident "the planet will be in better shape for the next generation." Obama said the agreement is not perfect, but sets a framework that will contain periodic reviews and assessments to ensure that countries meet their commitments to curb carbon emissions.
The immediate reaction of leading Republican critics was a stark reminder of the conflict that lies ahead.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said Obama is "making promises he can't keep" and should remember that the agreement "is subject to being shredded in 13 months." McConnell noted that the presidential election is next year and the agreement could be reversed if the GOP wins the White House.
And Republican Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma said that Americans can expect the administration to cite the agreement as an excuse for establishing emission targets for every sector of the U.S. economy.
Kerry said from Paris: "I have news for Senator Inhofe. The United States of America has already reduced its emissions more than any other country in the world."
"This has to happen," he said of the agreement. "I believe this will continue because I just personally cannot believe that any person who doesn't understand the science and isn't prepared to do for the next generation what we did here today and follow through on it cannot and will not be elected president of the United States."
In an interview taped for CBS' "Face the Nation," Kerry called the climate pact "a breakaway agreement" that will change how countries make decisions and "spur massive investment."He acknowledged that a Republican president could undo the agreement, but said there is already plenty of evidence that climate change is having a damaging and expensive impact with more intense storms, wildfires and melting glaciers.
Several Democratic lawmakers applauded Obama's efforts.House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi hailed it as a "monumental moment" and praised Obama for his leadership on the issue.
Sen. Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic minority leader, said climate change poses one of the greatest threats the world has ever known, and that no country acting alone can stem the tide.
"The time to act is now," the Nevada lawmaker said.
Obama took credit for the successful negotiations. "Today, the American people can be proud — because this historic agreement is a tribute to American leadership. Over the past seven years, we've transformed the United States into the global leader in fighting climate change."
Beyond Red Delicious, Galas, Fujis, Granny Smiths, and the handful of other apple varieties on grocery store shelves this fall, there are more than one thousand apple varieties grown by heirloom orchardists and backyard gardeners in the United States.
Api Etoile, a star-shaped variety from Switzerland, and Apricot—you guessed it, an apricot-flavored apple—are just two examples of the diversity that’s out there. With so many varieties to choose from, it’s helpful to have a way to classify them so you know which to pick if you’re making cider or a pie—or want to fatten your hogs.
If you’re planning to plant apple trees, there are also technical details that make the difference between a successful planting and a fruitless one. Most apple varieties, for example, require pollination by another variety—not just any variety, but one whose flowers open during the same week or two in spring. Rootstock, chill hours, and fruit spurs also come into play. No idea what those terms mean? It’s all spelled out here.
When Do You Want Your Apples?
Apples are not just a fall fruit. In fact, no other temperate climate fruit is available fresh for as many months of the year. By picking varieties that ripen at different times, you can extend the harvest from July to December. Variety listings typically designate one of three ripening seasons.
Early: Apples that ripen in mid to late summer. Examples: Anna, Early Gold, Lodi
Mid-Season: Apples that ripen in late summer to early fall. Examples: Honeycrisp, Macintosh, Sweet Sixteen
Late-Season: Apples that ripen from mid-fall into early winter. Examples: Newtown Pippin, Fuji, Rhode Island Greening
What Do You Want Them For?
Dessert: Apples that are recommended for eating fresh from the tree are referred to as dessert apples or table apples, which include American Beauty, Grimes Golden, Ribston Pippin, and Virginia Beauty. They are typically sweet, crisp, and juicy, but beyond that there is a world of flavor to explore. Early ripening apples are often the best dessert varieties.
Cooking: When making pies, preserves, and other baked goods, use drier, sweet-tart varieties (which match well with baking spices) with a firm texture (so they hold their shape after baking). Some good options: Honeycrisp, Jonathan, Braeburn, and Melrose.
Keepers: These are varieties that have been bred to last for months in a root cellar, extending the apple season into early spring when few other fruits are available. Late-ripening varieties like Arkansas Black, Brown Russet, and Mutsu are often the best keepers.
Hard Cider: Historically, most apples were cider apples (eating them fresh is a fairly recent development). Rather than use a single variety, cidermakers usually blend several varieties together based on their dominant flavor profiles. Recipes vary, but 50 percent sweet varieties (high brix rating), 35 percent sharp (high-acid/tart-flavored), and 15 percent bitter (high tannin content). For example, you might mix Rome Beauty (sweet), Winesap (sharp), and Red Astrakhan (bitter). There are also special cider varieties that are used alone, such as Kingston Black and Greasy.
Apple Juice: Any apple can be juiced, but the best varieties to use are a matter of personal opinion. One school of thought says sweet dessert apples are best for juicing, while others prefer the complex flavor in a blend of sweet, sharp, and bitter varieties, as for hard cider.
Livestock: Pigs, cows, horses, goats, and other livestock are happy to eat any apple, but certain varieties that are too insipid for human consumption have been traditionally used for this purpose, such as crabapples.
What Are Your Growing Requirements?
When selecting an apple for planting, it’s not enough to choose based on flavor or use. Some varieties may be better suited to your climate and specific growing situation than others.
Low-Chill: Apples need a certain number of hours below 45 degrees Fahrenheit each winter to produce fruit, which is measured in chill hours. The chill hours required range from less than 100 to more than 1,000, depending on the variety, and are typically listed in the variety description in catalogs. Use a chill hours map to find the number of chill hours in your area. In mild winter climates, only low-chill varieties should be planted to ensure fruit production. White Pearmain, Winter Banana, and Dorsett Golden are among those recommended for the mild winter areas of the West Coast and the Deep South.
To say the least, weekday mornings can be pretty busy. Getting the kids (and yourself) ready to go, squeezing in a workout, making sure all stomachs are filled with delicious and healthy breakfast. Honestly, who has time to do it all? Well, we’ve teamed up with our friends at The Quaker Oats Company to help you get your mornings off to a great start by making breakfast a little easier.
APPLE CINNAMON BAKED OATMEAL MUFFINS
Instructions:
1. In a large bowl, combine milk, eggs, vanilla, cinnamon and nutmeg. Stir. Add agave, baking powder and oats. Stir. Fold in apples and raisins. Refrigerate batter overnight. 2. Preheat oven to 350 degrees F. Spray a jumbo muffin tin with nonstick spray. Fill each tin with oatmeal mixture. Bake for 25 minutes. Grab and go!
ORANGE BLUEBERRY BAKED OATMEAL
Instructions:
1. In a large bowl, combine milk, eggs, vanilla and brown sugar. Stir. Add orange zest, orange juice, baking powder and oats. Stir. Fold in blueberries and pecans. Refrigerate batter overnight. 2. Preheat oven to 350 degrees F. Spray an 8×8 baking pan with nonstick spray. Pour oatmeal mixture into the pan. Bake for 35-38 minutes. Let cool 10 minutes. Serve with honey or maple syrup. Enjoy!
Prince has been atypically charitable of late. In September, he released Hitnrun Phase One, a new album full of bright, dance-inflected rock; this past week, after years of refusal, he finally allowed footage of his incredible “Creep” cover to remain online.
And the riches keep coming: On Saturday, without any prior announcement, the Purple One released yet another new album, Hitnrun Phase Two, which like its predecessor is exclusively streaming on Tidal. The record features some previously shared songs—Freddie Gray tribute “Baltimore,” recent live staple “Screwdriver”—but the rest is brand-new material. And for those keeping count, that’s four Prince albums in the past two years, which suggests that, despite increasing evidence to the contrary, ours is a good world. A full tracklist is below.
01. Baltimore 02. RocknRoll Love Affair 03. 2 Y. 2 D. 04. Look at Me, Look at U 05. Stare 06.. Xtraloveable 07. Groovy Potential 08. When She Comes 09. Screwdriver 10.. Black Muse 11. Revelation 12. Big City
appy Brokered Convention Day! No, no, there will not be any brokered major political party conventions today. I mean that today, thanks to theWashington Post’s reporting on what a few fancy Washington people talked about at some fancy dinner the other night, marks the first of many days in which political media overflows with thrilling content about how There really could be a brokered convention this year! This speculation comes around like clockwork each cycle. When it doesn’t materialize, it’s replaced by its general election equivalent,There really could be an Electoral College tie!, as political reporters’ prevailing hope of hopes.
“Republican officials and leading figures in the party’s establishment,” the Postreports, “are preparing for the possibility of a brokered convention as businessman Donald Trump continues to sit atop the polls in the GOP presidential race.” Figures like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus listened Monday night while officials laid out the nuts and bolts of a contested convention process. And if they ran through a contingency plan two months before anyone’s voted, then there’s definitelygoing to be a brokered convention this year, right? Don’t hold your breath.
There hasn’t been a floor fight over the GOP presidential nomination since 1976 or any undecided first-ballot votes for a nominee from either party since 1952. That’s because there aren’t really any “brokers” anymore, i.e., party officials who keep delegates in their pockets and horse-trade at the site. That’s a very old-timey, machine-politics system that looks absolutely awful on television. Modern nominating conventions aren’t intended to resolve nominating disputes in real time. Instead, they serve as a) well-choreographed PR events for each party to market itself as allegedly representative of the American people, and b) a way for the parties to pamper big donors and attend cheesy, depraved happy hours with evil lobbyists.
Because a deadlocked convention, in which a party heads into a convention before a candidate has secured a majority of delegates, would be an unholy PR mess for a party—picture roughly 2,500 delegates, along with the candidates themselves, horse-trading on the floor as his or her own individual broker—the Republican Party will do everything in its power to avoidthis outcome. If a top candidate is a wee bit short of a majority of delegates, the powers that be would try to nudge a few unbound delegates in the right direction to push the candidate over the top and avoid a scene.
What makes a contested Republican convention slightly more possible this year than in previous cycles is that there is a fresh scenario that would constitute even worse PR for the party than a floor melee: Donald Trump winning the party’s presidential nomination.
That, per the Washington Post, is what this dinner was really all about. “Weighing in on that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) listened,” the Post writes, “several longtime Republican power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said.”
If Sen. Marco Rubio or even Sen. Ted Cruz came into the convention with about 45 percent of “bound” delegates—ones earned in primaries and required to vote for designated candidates on the first ballot—the party’s superdelegates could push him over the edge. But if Trump came in with 49.9 percent of bound delegates, the party would do everything in its power to prevent him from reaching a majority.
Such an aggressive effort to block Trump from the nomination, displayed on national TV, would mean calling Trump on his threat to run as an independent and praying that it’s a bluff. You never know with Trump. But it’s worth pointing out that there would be no point to an independent presidential bid. It would be expensive, he would run into exhausting ballot access issues, he would have a 0 percent chance of winning the general election, and he single-handedly would be responsible for Hillary Clinton’s election.
An outright bound-delegate majority for, say, Rubio would be ideal for the party. A contested convention in which Cruz is nominated as a compromise, of sorts, between Trump and Rubio would be a nightmare for the party. A Trump independent presidential run would be a worse nightmare.
But the absolute worst nightmare for the party would be Trump as its presidential nominee. In that scenario the GOP loses not just the presidential election but total control over the image of its party, as well as a disturbing number of down-ballot races. The entire Republican apparatus, from the local to the state to the federal level, would wake up each morning of a general election season as a member of Trump’s party.
A contested convention would be disgusting. But if the party has to do it to stop Donald Trump, of course it will be prepared to do so.
